Vol. 6 • Deck 23 • Immigration & Identity

Immigration:
Numbers vs. Narrative

The most politically weaponized topic in America. The most consistently misrepresented by data. Here is what the research actually says.

46.2%
of Fortune 500 companies founded by immigrants or their children — American Immigration Council

Who Is Actually
Here

The U.S. has more foreign-born residents than any country on earth. That population is not monolithic — it includes naturalized citizens, legal permanent residents, visa holders, asylum seekers, and undocumented individuals. The policy debate almost exclusively focuses on the smallest and most legally vulnerable group.

53.3M
Foreign-Born U.S. Residents
15.8% of total U.S. population — Pew Research 2025
~14M
Undocumented Population
~2/3 have lived in the U.S. for 10+ years — Pew 2025
5.5M
U.S.-Born Children with Undocumented Parents
American citizens whose parents lack legal status — FWD.us
3.7M
DACA-Eligible Individuals
Brought to U.S. as children — most have lived here 20+ years
U.S. Foreign-Born Population by Legal Status (2024 Estimates)
Source: Pew Research Center — Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the U.S. (August 2025); DHS Office of Immigration Statistics; American Immigration Council. "Visa holders" includes temporary workers, students, and other non-immigrant status categories.

Myth vs. Data:
What the Research Shows

Immigration policy is shaped more by perception than evidence. On the most contested claims — crime, jobs, wages, fiscal impact — the peer-reviewed research consistently diverges from the dominant political narrative. This is not a matter of interpretation. The data sources are federal agencies, peer-reviewed journals, and institutions across the political spectrum including the libertarian Cato Institute.

Claim
Immigrants — especially undocumented — commit more crime than native-born Americans.
What the Data Shows
Immigrants are consistently less likely to be incarcerated than native-born citizens. Undocumented immigrants have the lowest incarceration rates of any group — Cato Institute; PNAS 2020.
Claim
Undocumented immigrants drain social services and don't pay taxes.
What the Data Shows
Undocumented workers paid $25.7B into Social Security in 2022 — receiving no benefits. They pay sales, property, and often payroll taxes. They are ineligible for most federal assistance programs — ITEP/SSA 2024.
Claim
Immigration takes jobs from American workers and drives down wages.
What the Data Shows
CBO (2024): expanding legal immigration increases GDP, raises wages for most workers, and reduces the federal deficit. Immigrants and native workers largely fill complementary rather than competing roles — Congressional Budget Office 2024.
Claim
Most undocumented immigrants crossed the border illegally.
What the Data Shows
40-50% of the undocumented population entered legally on valid visas and overstayed. Border walls and enforcement do not address this population — DHS Office of Immigration Statistics.
Incarceration Rates by Nativity & Immigration Status (Per 100,000 Adults, 2020)
Source: Cato Institute — Criminal Immigrants: Their Numbers, Demographics, and Countries of Origin; Light et al. PNAS 2020. Rates calculated per 100,000 adults in each category. Consistent finding across multiple independent studies spanning 20+ years.

The Economic
Contribution

The economic case for immigration is not ideological — it is documented. Immigrants start businesses at higher rates, hold critical roles in healthcare, agriculture, construction, and technology, pay into retirement systems they cannot access, and build companies that employ millions of Americans born here.

Immigrants are 80% more likely to start a business than native-born Americans. 46.2% of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or their children — generating $8.6 trillion in annual revenue. The contribution is not theoretical. It is documented, audited, and taxed.

American Immigration Council; MIT / American Economic Review; Fortune 500 founding data
Immigrant Workers as Share of Critical U.S. Industry Sectors (% of Workforce, 2024)
Source: American Immigration Council — Immigrants in the United States 2024; Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational data; Migration Policy Institute sector analysis. "Immigrant" includes all foreign-born workers regardless of legal status.
$25.7B
Into Social Security (2022)
From undocumented workers who receive no benefits — ITEP/SSA 2024
80%
More Likely to Start a Business
Immigrants vs. native-born Americans — American Immigration Council
$8.6T
Annual Revenue
Generated by Fortune 500 companies with immigrant founders — New American Economy
+$7T
CBO GDP Increase Projection
Over 10 years from expanded legal immigration — CBO 2024

The Broken Asylum System
& Enforcement Reality

Seeking asylum is legal under both U.S. and international law. The system that processes asylum claims is not designed for the volume it now receives — and deliberate policy choices have made it worse. The backlog is not an accident of demand. It is the predictable result of years of underfunding, court staffing shortfalls, and policy decisions that prioritize deterrence over adjudication.

3.7M
Immigration Court Case Backlog
Average wait time: 4+ years — TRAC/Syracuse 2025
700
Immigration Judges Nationwide
Handling 3.7M pending cases — 5,300 cases per judge
$34K
Average Cost to Deport One Person
vs. $12K/year cost of legal work authorization — AAF 2024
$315B
Projected Cost of Mass Deportation
To remove ~11M people — American Action Forum 2024
Immigration Court Backlog Growth vs. Immigration Judge Hiring (2010-2025)
Source: TRAC / Syracuse University Immigration Court Backlog Tool 2025; Executive Office for Immigration Review judge count data. The gap between cases and capacity has grown every year regardless of which party controls the executive branch.

What Americans
Actually Think

Public opinion on immigration is more nuanced than the political debate suggests. Americans consistently distinguish between different categories of immigrants, express support for earned pathways to citizenship, and reject mass deportation — while also wanting border security. The "either/or" framing of the political debate does not reflect what most Americans actually believe.

American Public Opinion on Immigration Policy by Position (% in Favor, Gallup 2024-2025)
Source: Gallup Immigration Attitudes and Citizenship Support surveys (June 2025); Pew Research immigration opinion tracking. Questions standardized across survey years. Bipartisan majorities exist for earned pathways and DACA protections; mass deportation supported by a minority.
Foreign-Born Share of U.S. Population vs. Public Perception of That Share (% Estimates, Gallup 2024)
Source: Gallup perceptions of immigration data 2024; U.S. Census Bureau / Pew Research actual population figures. Americans across all demographics significantly overestimate the share of immigrants in the population — the perception gap drives much of the policy debate.
Sources & Citations
ITEP / SSA — Undocumented Immigrants Paid $25.7B into Social Security in 2022 (July 2024) — itep.org
Congressional Budget Office — The Demographic and Economic Effects of Expanding Legal Immigration (2024) — cbo.gov
Cato Institute / Light et al. — Criminal Immigrants: Their Numbers, Demographics, and Countries of Origin; PNAS 2020
Pew Research Center — Unauthorized Immigrant Population in the U.S. (August 2025) — pewresearch.org
American Immigration Council — Immigrants in the United States (economic contribution data) — americanimmigrationcouncil.org
TRAC / Syracuse University — Immigration Court Backlog Tool (2025) — trac.syr.edu
Gallup — Immigration Attitudes and Citizenship Support (June 2025) — gallup.com
FWD.us — Mixed Status Households Data — fwd.us
American Action Forum — The Fiscal Cost of Replacing Current Unauthorized Immigrants (2024) — americanactionforum.org