Vol. 2 • Deck 25 • Gov & Corps

Law Enforcement:
Protect and Serve Whom?

American police departments spend $115 billion a year. They solve fewer than half of violent crimes. The question is not whether we need public safety — it is whether what we have built actually delivers it.

1,365
People killed by police in the U.S. in 2024 — the highest annual total ever recorded — Mapping Police Violence / Campaign Zero 2025

The Scale of
American Policing

The United States has approximately 19,000 law enforcement agencies employing over 800,000 officers. Annual spending exceeds $135 billion — more than the entire GDP of many countries. Compared to peer nations, American policing is uniquely decentralized, uniquely armed, and uniquely lethal. That combination has consequences the data makes visible.

$135B
Annual Policing Cost
Across ~19,000 agencies; most municipalities spend 25-40% of discretionary budget on police — Urban Institute / Census Bureau (2021 data)
1,247
Killed by Police in 2023
Highest annual total recorded; 3-4x the rate of comparable wealthy nations — Mapping Police Violence
45%
Violent Crime Clearance Rate
Less than half of violent crimes result in arrest; homicide clearance fell to 52.3% in 2022, the lowest since 1965 — Murder Accountability Project / FBI CJIS
$3.2B
Paid in Misconduct Settlements
In the largest 25 U.S. cities from 2010-2020; paid by taxpayers, not officers — Washington Post investigation 2022
Police Killings Per 10 Million People -- U.S. vs. Peer Nations (2023)
Source: Mapping Police Violence 2024; OECD national statistics; Statista global law enforcement data. "Peer nations" defined as OECD members with comparable GDP per capita. The U.S. rate is 3-7x higher than any comparison country.

Qualified Immunity:
The Accountability Shield

Qualified immunity is a judicial doctrine created by the Supreme Court in 1967 and dramatically expanded in 1982 — with no basis in the text of federal civil rights law. It protects officers from civil liability unless a prior court case established nearly identical facts. In practice, it makes it nearly impossible to sue a police officer for misconduct, no matter how severe. It did not come from Congress. It came from nine justices deciding to write it into existence.

Officers have been granted immunity for: shooting a 10-year-old while trying to shoot a dog, using a police dog to maul a surrendered suspect, stealing $225,000 while executing a search warrant, and shooting an unarmed man 4 times in the back. In each case, the court found no prior case with sufficiently similar facts to put the right "beyond debate."

Institute for Justice — Qualified Immunity: A Legal, Practical, and Moral Failure (2020); ACLU Case Compilation 2024
57%
of Civil Rights Cases Blocked
Officers won 57% of cases where they raised a QI defense at the appellate level in excessive-force cases (2017-2019) — Reuters Investigates 2020
1982
Year the Standard Tightened
Harlow v. Fitzgerald created the "clearly established law" standard; invented by the Court, not Congress
0
States That Have Fully Abolished It
Colorado, New York, Massachusetts have partial reforms; full federal abolition bills have stalled repeatedly in Congress
99%
Misconduct Costs Paid by Taxpayers
Cities absorb settlement costs; officers and departments rarely pay — Schwartz, NYU Law Review 2014 (confirmed in Shielded, 2023)
Police Misconduct Settlement Costs -- Top 10 U.S. Cities (2010-2020, $M)
Source: Invisible Institute -- The Accountability Project; city financial disclosures and public records requests. New York City data includes NYPD settlements only. Costs paid by city general funds unless otherwise noted in city records.

Race, Force, and
the Numbers That Don't Lie

Racial disparities in policing exist at every point of contact: traffic stops, searches, use of force, and fatal encounters. These disparities persist after controlling for neighborhood crime rates, socioeconomic conditions, and officer characteristics. They are not fully explained by differential behavior. They are substantially explained by differential treatment — a finding replicated across dozens of peer-reviewed studies using national data.

Risk of Being Killed by Police by Race -- Lifetime Risk per 100,000 (Edwards et al. PNAS 2019, updated 2024)
Source: Edwards, Lee, Esposito -- "Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race-ethnicity, and sex" PNAS 2019; Mapping Police Violence 2024 updates. Lifetime risk calculated as probability of being killed by police over a lifetime for each demographic group.
~20%
More Likely to Be Stopped While Driving
Black drivers vs. white drivers at comparable stops; once stopped, searched at 1.5-2x the rate — Stanford Open Policing Project (Pierson et al., Nature Human Behaviour 2020)
2.9x
More Likely to Be Killed by Police
Black men vs. white men; current ratio based on Mapping Police Violence 2024 data — Edwards et al. PNAS 2019; Mapping Police Violence 2024
1 in 1,000
Black Men's Lifetime Fatal Encounter Risk
vs. 1 in 2,500 for white men (1 in 2,000 is the average for all men combined) — Edwards, Lee & Esposito, PNAS 2019
98.3%
Officers Not Charged in Fatal Shootings
Of 15,000+ killings from 2013-2024; less than 2% of officers faced charges — Mapping Police Violence 2024

The "veil of darkness" finding is among the most controlled in policing research: during daylight hours, when officers can see race before stopping a driver, racial disparities in traffic stops are significantly larger. At night — when race is less visible — the gap narrows. This is not about crime rates. It is about perception at the moment of decision.

Stanford Open Policing Project — 100 Million Traffic Stops Analysis (2019, updated 2023)

Policing for Profit:
When the Budget Depends on Revenue

Civil asset forfeiture allows law enforcement to seize property — cash, cars, homes — without charging the owner with a crime. The owner must then prove their innocence in civil court to get their property back. In 2019, the federal government and states collectively seized more through civil forfeiture than all U.S. burglars stole combined. This is not a bug in the system. For departments that keep a portion of what they seize, it is the incentive structure.

Civil Asset Forfeiture vs. Burglary Losses -- Annual Comparison (2000-2023, $B)
Source: Institute for Justice -- Policing for Profit (2015, 2020 updates); FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data on burglary losses; U.S. Department of Justice Asset Forfeiture Fund reports; state AG forfeiture reports compiled by IJ. 2019 marks the first year forfeiture exceeded all FBI-reported burglary losses.

How Forfeiture Works

  • Police seize property they suspect is connected to crime -- no conviction required, often no charge
  • Owner must sue the government (not the officer) in civil court to recover property
  • Legal fees often exceed the value of seized property -- most people don't fight it
  • Federal "equitable sharing" lets local agencies keep up to 80% of seized assets

Who Gets Hit

  • Median seizure: $1,300 -- below the cost of hiring an attorney to contest it
  • Black and Latino motorists disproportionately targeted in roadside cash seizures
  • 87% of federal forfeiture cases never result in any criminal charge -- IJ 2020
  • Departments use funds for vehicles, equipment, travel -- no uniform public accounting required

The Militarization
of American Streets

Since 1997, the Department of Defense 1033 Program has transferred over $7.4 billion in military equipment to local law enforcement agencies — including armored vehicles, grenade launchers, aircraft, and rifles designed for warfare. The research on whether militarized policing reduces crime is clear: it does not. The research on whether it increases use of force complaints and civilian distrust is equally clear: it does.

$7.6B
Military Equipment Transferred
Via DOD 1033 Program since 1997; includes 20,000+ armored vehicles, aircraft, weapons — DLA/LESO data; CREW 2025
50-80K
SWAT Deployments Per Year (Est.)
Up from ~3,000 in 1980; 62% for drug searches; 79% for search warrants — ACLU "War Comes Home" 2014; Kraska research
0
Studies Finding Crime Reduction
Peer-reviewed literature finds no evidence militarization reduces violent crime rates — Journal of Criminal Justice 2023
+129%
Modeled Increase in Civilian Deaths
Modeled increase in civilian deaths moving from min to max 1033 equipment levels (4-state study) — Delehanty et al., Research & Politics 2017
SWAT Team Usage Growth vs. Violent Crime Rate -- U.S. 1980-2023
Source: ACLU -- War Comes Home: The Excessive Militarization of American Police (2014, updated); FBI Uniform Crime Reporting violent crime rate data; Peter Kraska militarization research series. SWAT deployment data from national law enforcement surveys; violent crime index normalized to 1980 baseline.

What Actually
Makes Communities Safe

The evidence on public safety is broader than the policing debate. Most of the factors that predict crime — unemployment, housing instability, childhood poverty, mental health access, and neighborhood disinvestment — are not addressed by patrol officers. Cities that have shifted resources toward these upstream conditions show measurable crime reductions. The choice is not police vs. no police. It is how we build communities where fewer people are desperate enough to harm each other.

Cost-Effectiveness of Public Safety Investments -- $ Per Crime Prevented (RAND, WSIPP Data)
Source: RAND Corporation public safety research; Washington State Institute for Public Policy benefit-cost analyses; National Bureau of Economic Research crime prevention meta-analysis (2023). Lower cost per crime prevented = more cost-effective. Figures represent average across multiple evaluations; individual program results vary.
Approach Evidence Strength Crime Impact Community Trust Impact
Community violence intervention programsStrong (multiple RCTs)-30 to -60% shootings in target areasPositive — community-led
Early childhood investment (pre-K)Very Strong (50yr data)-40% adult crime for participantsPositive — broad community benefit
Mental health co-responders (CAHOOTS model)Moderate-StrongReduces unnecessary police contactStrongly positive for served communities
Hot-spots policing (targeted, procedurally just)Moderate-20% crime in targeted micro-areasNeutral to negative without community buy-in
Increased patrol saturationWeakMinimal measurable effectNegative in high-distrust areas
Military equipment transfer (1033)Negative evidenceNo crime reduction foundStrongly negative
Sources & Citations
Mapping Police Violence — 2024 Annual Report on Police Killings in the United States — mappingpoliceviolence.org
FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program — Crime in the United States 2023; Clearance Rate Data — ucr.fbi.gov
Urban Institute — Local Government Budgets and Public Safety Spending 2024 — urban.org
Washington Post — "Repeated police misconduct cost taxpayers" investigation (March 2022); Invisible Institute — The Accountability Project database — invisible.institute
Institute for Justice — Qualified Immunity: A Legal, Practical, and Moral Failure (2020); Policing for Profit (3rd Ed. 2020) — ij.org
Stanford Open Policing Project — Analysis of 100+ Million Traffic Stops (2019, updated 2023) — openpolicing.stanford.edu
Edwards, Lee, Esposito — Risk of Being Killed by Police Use of Force by Race — PNAS 2019 — pnas.org
Police Use of Force Project — National Database on Use of Force Policies and Outcomes 2024 — useofforceproject.org
ACLU — War Comes Home: The Excessive Militarization of American Police (2014 + 2024 updates) — aclu.org
Delehanty, Mewhirter, Welch & Wilks — Militarization and Police Violence: The Case of the 1033 Program — Research & Politics 4(2), 2017
Joanna Schwartz (UCLA Law) — How Governments Pay: Lawsuits, Budgets, and Police Reform — UCLA Law Review 2024
RAND Corporation — Public Safety Investment Meta-Analysis; Community Violence Intervention Evaluation — rand.org
Washington State Institute for Public Policy — Benefit-Cost Analyses of Crime Prevention Programs — wsipp.wa.gov